Fresh snow again in the Northern French Alps and surrounding areas this week, and plenty of it – great news, and fantastic snow quality! But this season we’re also dealing with an exceptionally unstable snowpack in many places.
Weather forecasters are talking about an extremely unsettled period of weather from Tuesday, for at least the next week, and maybe even up to the 20 Feb or so. Meteo Tarentaise has issued a weather flash warning of heavy rain and snowmelt at lower altitudes, and very large snow accumulations expected at higher altitudes with “an avalanche risk that could become extreme”. The avalanche danger levels will certainly be going up to a 4 later in the week.
See lower down for this week’s forecast.
This unstable snowpack doesn’t mean that every slope you ski is going to avalanche. Most of the time nothing happens.…. And that is precisely the risk-management problem. This is relevant all the time (even without the exceptionally big snowfalls, that we may be having later this week).
When nothing happens most of the time it becomes very easy for any of us – regardless of how experienced we are – to slide into complacency and overconfidence, especially when persistent weak layers in the snowpack are still in place, as they are particularly this season.
The environment quietly rewards risky behaviour… right up until it doesn’t. That’s the kind of high-consequence, low-feedback context we focus on in the HAT Safety is Freedom framework that you can see at the end of this article.
We’ll be sharing more in the coming days on the risk-management theme “Nothing Happens Most of the Time” with concrete examples also drawn from aerospace, surgery, and other high-risk fields. The article will be published on this web site > HAT BLOG or henrysavalanchetalk.com/hat_blog
Don’t let the fact that nothing happens most of the time lead you into a false sense of security.
Slopes may release even after dozens of people have skied down them. With the very unstable snowpack that we have at the moment they may release in places they normally don’t go—such as in wooded or sparsely treed areas—and they may also be triggered remotely, from a long distance away or even from a long way up above! In sum, expect the unexpected… including much bigger than expected too.
Conditions are not going to stabilize quickly after the snowstorms. This persistent weak layer is called “persistent” for a reason: it remains in place and will continue to affect stability for some time.
So some concrete advice is to be especially aware of of avoiding steep slopes (30 degrees or steeper) above terrain traps. Terrain traps include trees, cliffs, holes, lakes, or any features below that could worsen the consequences of a slide. These are key hazards to watch for – most years at least half of all tragic accidents involve steep slopes above terrain traps. And remember you can avoid avalanche danger all together off-piste if you stay in areas where there are no slopes steeper than 30° around you (and above you).
I’ve summarized all of these points in my pocket guide and framework (at the end of this blog).
Avalanche Thabor (Valféjus) 07/02/2026 Photo by Sarah Blanc. Taken from Data Avalanche website: data-avalanche.org/avalanche/1770478044489. This is an example of the type of ‘surprise’ I mention in my video (the size is exceptional: a system of multiple slab releases triggered ‘remotely’ and most likely ‘sympathetic releases’ making it much bigger than anyone could reasonably expect). 2 off-piste skiers were taken in this avalanche, one of whom sadly did not survive.
Weather forecast : Mon 9th to Fri 13th Feb
MONDAY 9th: A mixture of sunshine and cloud. Clouds thickening in the afternoon, bringing possible light snowfall to the highest peaks. Freezing level around 1700 m. Light to moderate S wind.
TUESDAY 10th: The start of a long unsettled period of weather. Quickly clouding over, with precipitation beginning in the west, spreading throughout the morning. Snowfall down to 1500–1700 meters at first (but as low as 1100–1300 meters in sheltered inner valleys). In the afternoon the rain/snow limit may rise to around 1800 m, and even up to 2000 m in the evening. 15 to 25 cm expected above 2000 m. Freezing level around 1600 m then rising to 2200 meters. Moderate to strong S wind.
WEDNESDAY 11th: Continued unsettled weather, with frequent precipitation. Rain/snow limit around 1300–1500 m (bringing an additional 20 to 30 cm of snow above 1800 m).
THURSDAY 12th & FRIDAY 13th: Very unsettled weather continuing. Virutally continual snowfall above 1700 m, particularly heavy on Thursday, with the rain/ snow limit fluctuating between 1000 and 1400 m.
LOOKING AHEAD: Remaining unsettled.
Use our HAT “Safety Is Freedom Framework” to help keep you acceptably safe off-piste:
Instead of relying on gut feeling or simple visual observations (which are often flawed even amongst the most experienced), use the key points in the HAT Framework. These are the 9 essential behaviours that were not applied by most avalanche victims — and following these points can significantly reduce your risk.
You can also see these key points in the HAT Prevention Pocket Guide shown in the video. These tools are designed to complement avalanche training and remind you of what actually keeps you acceptably safe.
You can find the Framework, Pocket Guide and the full blog here: henrysavalanchetalk.com/product/hat-safety-pack/and see the pocket guide on video on youtu.be/xPcz5W2-Rcw
Safety is Freedom!
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